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 Tropical Depression 02 in the Eastern Pacific turned into Tropical Storm Amanda and then quickly came onshore Sunday morning bringing devastating rains to El Salvador where most of the at least 20 deaths occurred. Guatemala and Honduras were also impacted. According to Carolina Recinos an aide to the President, Amanda dropped 10% of the yearly expected rainfall on El Salvador. After a little more than a day of gyrating and growing overland, Amanda remnants (then 93L) stepped off into the Bay of Campeche and quickly began to organize. It has now been declared Tropical Depression 03L. The early track models were a bit all over the place. Late track models favored north to north/northeast, though some took it back to land. Models don't agree on much other than if it gets away from land it may pick up some speed as it tracks thru the warm Gulf of Mexico.  Figure 2. National Hurricane Center Key Messages for Tropical Depression 3. The flooding in El Salvador from Amanda is a continuation of the scary step up we've seen recently in the most extreme flooding events. And the Occasional Horse Video... Some horses have been making it out to the protests and riots. A few their owners rode, many more were brought for the police to ride and use for crowd control. This was the wildest horse video of the lot when a rioter rides off on a police horse. Lucky he's riding with waze, warning him of the dangers ahead.
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92L Looking Less Likely to Develop
92L is located about 350 miles east of Bermuda. The broad trough lacks convection and with conditions expected to grow less favorable for development on Sunday, National Hurricane Center has drops it's chance of developing to 20%.
02E One for the Gulf of Mexico to Watch
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE COASTS OF EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA... ...HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY THREAT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ENTIRE COAST OF EL SALVADOR * ENTIRE COAST OF GUATEMALA NHC Advisory Tropical Depression 2 located in the Eastern Pacific may strengthen to a Tropical Storm before making landfall on the El Salvador and Guatemala coast. It is then forecast to dissipate. Flooding rains is the largest concern for those in the path. Models are torn on it crossing intact or dissipating before emerging into the Bay of Campeche before moving north into the Gulf of Mexico next week. Since 1842 ten storms have crossed from the Pacific to the Atlantic. The last was Otto in November of 2016. Looking at past storms it is twice as likely that a storm will enter the other basin as a remnant of itself and then regenerate. Leaving the current floater for 02E. Refresh page for latest image. 92L is well east of Florida. It is a trough with an Upper Level Low that may go sub-tropical. National Hurricane Center is giving it a 30% chance to develop.  Bertha remnants spawned a tornado in Warren, NC. Some trees and an outbuilding were damaged. Winds and tree damaged continued north into Virginia. There is some moderate to near major river flooding along the Pee Dee river in south and North Carolina and a few rivers just to the west. As Bertha moved inland, South Florida took another heavy rainfall. Natives were left to get creative in finding ways around on higher ground. 90L Trying to Pull It Together
Off to an early start of the 2020 Hurricane Season. 90L has been designated just off Southeastern Florida. The models have been shifty on this area of interest. The National Hurricane Center is expecting 90L to become a Tropical Storm on Saturday. This has the potential to bring heavy rains to parts of the Florida Keys, southeastern Florida, and in the Bahamas thru Saturday. There maybe gale force winds with the rain. Tomorrow afternoon Hurricane Hunters should be investigating the system. It is expected to move off to the northeast.
Refresh page for latest images.
RAMMB Visable/Infrared Floater 2 with wind flags
 RAMMB Infrared Floater 2  Wunderground Nexrad Radar Miami Wunderground Nexrad Radar Melbourne
 Cyclone Blake intensifies just off the Coast of Western Australia•Jan 6, 2020
Outback Outlaw Outback Outlaw takes you on a quick spin down to the beach to show you the Storm as it brews, intensifying, it’s just off the coast of where we are right now, some trees have fallen down and there is some significant road damage in the community. Stay tuned, some more vids coming your way. Calvinia had a good run of it, reaching 70kts, hitting Mauritius and affecting Reunion. As it weakened 12/31/2019 23:30Z, it went from a look of what ever...  ...to down right frightening as shear and cold water killed it. You can almost see it's spirit depart in the upper levels from it's skull faced demise 01/01/2020 23:35Z.  A bit more peaceful was the videos of beautiful waterfalls set to music that resulted.. Réunion Island 974 Recorded several waterfalls raging on the St Jo River, from the rains of Calvinia, in Langevin. Here are a few. The local news had Cyclone Calvinia raining on people as they went through their day with flooding in places, some large downed trees, farmers eyeing their fields, passengers stranded at an airport, street flooding and snarled electrical lines causing outages. TéléPlus
All the latest news from Mauritius live: live news, politics, economy, news, society, dossier, horse racing, shock videos, scandal and people. Hurricane Hunters Wrap Up Season Hurricane Hunters with the 53rd WRS wrapped up the hurricane half of the year with an article reflecting on the 2019 Season. They flew in Andrea, Barry, Dorian, Fernand, Humberto, Jerry, Karen, Lorena, Nestor and Olga. Flying more than 684 hours, totaling 80 missions into tropical storms over the Atlantic and East Pacific. The aspects that made 2019 challenging was the number of storms that threatened Bermuda and how that is a more difficult area to fly out to. The other big challenge was Dorian. They flew in that storm for 10 days from three different bases, depending on which was closest, Curaçao, Homestead (Air Reserve Base, Florida), and Keesler (AFB). Quoting Gautrau, “September was nonstop for the unit operations continuously going on, Hurricane Dorian was very slow moving system that was daunting on our operations and maintenance who were constantly generating aircraft to support.” With Hurricane season done they are off to fly Winter Storms.  Inside the eye of Hurricane Dorian during a Hurricane Hunters mission Sep. 2, 2019. The 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron, an Air Force Reserve unit located at Keesler Air Force Base, Mississippi., gathered weather information from inside Dorian. The data they gather is used by the National Hurricane Center for their forecasts. (U.S. Air Force photo by U.S. Navy Midshipman First Class Julia Von Fecht) And Winter is Here  Bringing in Meteorological Winter is this low that has moved into the Atlantic. Behind it is a sweep of cold air descending even through Florida. Lows in the mid to upper 30s expected in some areas in North and Central Florida.  This winter storm dumped plenty on the Northeast and Canada with a few areas receiving 20-22inches. Snow depth Map from NOHRSC is here.
The King Tides have returned. They began today, November 25th and should last through November 28th in the Southeast.
Flooding from seasonal king tides impacting businesses in Hollywood
•Nov 18, 2019 WPLG Local 10 Rising water levels due to king tides affected several popular Broward areas Monday afternoon. Causes of the increased flooding with King Tides due to the lunar gravitational pull and is compounded by sea level rise and a decrease in the Gulf Stream current. The Gulf Stream has slowed considerably this week. The current normally draws water away from the southeast coast. When it slows the sea level quickly responds with a sudden rise. 
NOAA's Global RTOFS showing the Gulf Stream current in meters per second.
The forecast has the Gulf Stream at it's lowest on November 27th. Other Areas Expecting Floods from the King Tides The King Tides are expected to affect the West Coast in conjunction with an incoming low that is expected to bomb as it makes landfall. A surge up to 7ft is forecast.
King tides could lead to flooding ahead of Thanksgiving storm•Nov 25, 2019
ABC 10 News As a storm heads towards San Diego, residents in coastal communities are bracing for king tides and possible flooding.
For all the area King Tides text bulletins issued from NOAA check here.
Despite two inches of rain Cold Mountain Fire burns on. Firefighters are in the area protecting structures and communities. Being in a wilderness area it was determined Friday that as little would be done as possible to impact Shinning Rock Wilderness with fire lines, air drops and things that could affect the natural outcome of this event or the land, streams & forest in general. Shinning Rock Wilderness remains closed. Smoke is expected to linger in the area and is currently evident on radar. The forecast is fairly dry with a little rain likely Wednesday and next weekend, maybe snow showers the following Monday. In flooding news Venice is flooding again and expected to do so over and over again this coming week. France was hit hard as another low has formed in the area.
Shinning Rock Wilderness, located in Pisgah Forest, about 35miles from Asheville, North Carolina is closed due to a wildfire. This closure includes all the trails in that area. Fire has grown to 126 acres today. It began on Cold Mountain around 3:00p. The same mountain featured in Charles Frazier's award winning book about a Confederate solider. The forest service is asking that people do not fly drones in the area.
The wild fire is near residential homes and private property. Smoky conditions are expected throughout the night. Rain is moving into the area and hopefully will give firefighters the advantage.
Below is real time radar from Wunderground. |
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