Weather was wild in various parts of the United States again today.  Two death occurred in the Northeast.  One in Connecticut the other New York.  Both were in a car when a tree fell on it.  Three people were injured from falling branches and another kid was injured when a dugout roof collapsed.  Damage was scattered from Texas to the Northeast.  There was two tornadoes, one in NY the other IL.  Ties for big hail at 2 3/4" between TX & NY.  Lots of wind reports.  Many trees blown down, power outages and roof damage.  A few buildings were reported as destroyed.  Roof loss occurred to homes, warehouses, a church and a Duncan Donuts.

Published on May 15, 2018
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Contact Brett Adair with Live Storms Media to license.
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Tornado watch: Rotating cloud spotted in Connecticut MassLive
Published on May 15, 2018A funnel cloud rotates above Lake McDonough in Barkhamsted, Conn., as an intense thunderstorm moves toward Southern Massachusetts on May 15, 2018.

Weather patterns are changing as a mid-level low is taking shape in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico and an inverted trough approaches from the Atlantic.  This should eventually feed moisture to the north to meet up with the precipitation still streaming through the Northeast on the jet stream.  The Eastern half of the USA is looking at a lot of rain coming this week.  For Florida the rain may continue on into a second week as some models are hinting at an early start to hurricane season.

It's time to pick-up outside and clear drains.  Some areas along the East Coast of Florida are expected to have over 7 inches of rain in the next week.  It is also a great time to get in the gardens to pull weeds, fertilize and plant.  With all the rain ahead a lot of growth is about to happen and once this all clears out in a few weeks it will be about into June and Meteorological Summer heat.  Plant that summer garden now!

Leaving some self updating graphics for the rain event. Refresh or revisit this page to see the latest.

Horses rain dance SmokeyZN
Published on Sep 17, 2011My horses doing the rain dance under the sprinkler

 Figure1: Oceanic Niño Index: 3 month running mean of ERSST.v4 SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region (5°N-5°S, 120°-170°W) Calculated from the ERSST V5 (at NOAA/CPC).  Credit: ERSL/NOAA  

The graph above compares this past La Nina that has just ended to other recent La Nina events.  2017-18 is pictured in black.  It was a weak La Nina but clusters well with other events ending in the spring.  Below is a look at these similar years tropical storms histories (depressions - tropical storms - hurricanes - major hurricanes).
1956 15-12-4-1
1971 22-13-6-1
1974 21-11-4-2
1976 23-10-6-2
1989 15-11-7-2
2000 19-15-8-3
2011 20-19-7-4
The average storm numbers for the Atlantic are 10.1 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.5 major hurricanes.  So these years listed shows well above average tropical cyclones, slightly elevated number of hurricanes and average number of Major hurricanes.
Also throwing out there a year seen mentioned a lot in the broken records and similarities, especially for the Northeast.  It was a neutral year coming off an El Nino.
1907 5-5-0-0
Looking at Tornado numbers through March..  There is some research showing low spring tornadoes can end in more hurricanes hitting land.  This spring there has certainly been less tornadoes than usual with only 62 preliminary reports through March.  Other years with similar numbers include:
1952 11-11-5-2
1953 14-14-7-3
1955 13-13-10-4
1959 14-14-7-2
1963 9-9-7-2
1979 26-9-5-2
1989 15-11-7-2
1992 10-7-4-1
1993 10-8-4-1
1995 21-19-11-5
1999 16-12-8-4
2004 16-15-9-6
2005 31-28-15-7
Though the numbers here were average to above average, the big take away seems to be the track maps showing the much higher likely hood of landfalls on the Gulf of Mexico/Florida regions with the East Coast also showing a somewhat raised risk.

Before coming up with seasonal forecast numbers we'll need an in depth look at the global tropics scene.  That will be another blog..

Cited references..
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, State of the Climate: Tornadoes for March 2018, published online April 2018, retrieved on May 12, 2018 from https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/tornadoes/201803.

A large cave system was found in Southeast Kenya, located 15km from the coast.  It's name is Panga ya Saidi.  The cave system housed homo sapiens at least as far back as 78,000 years ago.  It was in a more stable climate area where people could feed off the woods and animals in the area.  It looked inhabited all throughout the time of the Toba super-eruption 74,000 years ago which caused major weather disruptions and die offs of people and other species.  Many artifacts were found dating from the Stone Age to the Iron Age.  The cave reveals a point around 67,000 years ago when homo sapiens began on more technical endeavors.  It was the dawn of crafting small useful items.  More here..

Been following this trial in Essex over a seven year old girl's death.  The carnival owners were taking down inflatables as a storm blew up.  The girl wanted to bounce just a little bit longer.  The carnival owner agreed and then the wind carried the bounce house down a hill.  It stopped when it hit a tree.  William Thurston, 29, and his wife Shelby Thurston, 26, were convicted of gross negligence manslaughter.

There is two invests out there 97W & 90E.  The tropics overall haven't been very active; the flooding, landslides and such continue on. 

Issued a Haircon Advisory on the blob approaching Florida a few days ago.  Models are coming into more and more agreement this may rain on Florida's weekend.  GEOS-5 shows it being no worse than a possible Tropical Depression but may put a damper on Sunfest.. 

High winds tore through from Michigan to Toronto and through the Northeast disrupting power, removing shingles and damaging trees.  Over 300,000 people are without power.  Atleast two deaths and two major injuries have occurred so far.

Wind storm leaves path of destruction in Toronto CityNews Toronto
Published on May 4, 2018A look at some of the destruction caused by the wind storm Friday afternoon in Toronto. Nitish Bissonauth speaks with a passenger who was on a flight that made a harrowing landing at Billy Bishop.

2017 failed to produce the grapes and now the wine lovers will be served some whine instead.  Though 25 billion liters of wine was produced it was 1.7 billion short of 2016.  Weather was mostly to blame.  Europe had ill timed freezes, hail then drought,  Both South Africa and California's crop were devastated by wildfires.  Quality has suffered as some blending of better and not so palatable is bringing flavor down a notch.  The price of cheaper wine is already having a disproportionately larger percent increase.  Wine stats can be found here.

Drivers rescued from flood waters at Maitland-Winter Park line WESH 2 News

Locally there has been some heavy rain.  A messed up drainage situation can turn deadly around here.  Luckily people were on hand to fish others out of this car drowning trap on 17/92 at the Maitland-Winter Park line.  They even saved Elvis..check out that license plate.

The one in Fort Walton Beach tossing debris in the water was something..

An 18 year old blind and nearly deaf dog stayed with a 3 year old that wandered off on New South Wales.  The child was lost through a night of rain and 50F weather.  In the morning when searchers got near, the dog ran to them and guided them back to the girl.

Wind is up tonight and from the east for a change.  After watching the day go by with showers coming in off the Atlantic to the south and north, finally Melbourne's turn came this evening.  The wind hitting the east trees, the way it comes in waves off the ocean with certain sounds, reminds tropical season is nigh.  Still has a cool touch to it, subtropical like.  The switch is on.  All the outdoor lettuce got too hot last week and has since been eaten.  Some bush bean are up, a few squash & the tomatoes should be coming in soon.  Blueberries have been very good this year.  Looks like thousands of Surinam cherries coming.

Looking at GEOS-5, shows some long lived storm energy that is currently over the Midwest and Mississippi Valley.  Has it coming to the Gulf of Mexico, then getting swept up in a front that it dominates.  The tail of that and another front forms the possible sub-tropical low people are swirl watching on models in ~240hrs out in the Atlantic.  The GFS has liked it a bit as well.  Below is the real time viewfrom CIMSS.

4-21-2018 Childress, TX Large Hail, Accident, Hail Fog Live Storms Media

As a cold front pushes into the plains and south the atmosphere is destabilizing a bit this week.  So far today there has been only one wind report to the Storm Prediction Center with trees damaged and limbs snapped in Sebastian, AK.  Later today there is a slight risk across parts of Texas with marginal risk extending over a large area from The Four Corners thru Texas & back up into Ohio.  Mississippi River Basin is taking more rain.  They should have near completely closed the Bonnet Carre Spillway from the last flood.  With this rain forecast it was announced the other day that a second opening may happen.  It would be the first time ever it was opened twice in one year.

GEOS-5 has today's worst weather in Oklahoma.  Wednesday still looks like the most severe day and concentrates it in Texas.  Thursday has the worst now over coastal Texas, with lesser thru Louisiana, Mississippi & more severe in Tennessee.

Cyclone NORA has degraded into a remnant low but much of it's water remains over Queensland & Northern Australia.  40 people were rescued from two Cairns caravan parks in the flood.  The youtube below captures some of what is described here, where the campers were smashed into buildings from that event when 100mm of rain fell in a minute.

floods in Cairns, Tropical cyclone Nora damage, inundations Queensland , North Australia Cities of the World
Published on Mar 27, 2018floods in Cairns, Tropical cyclone Nora damage, inundations Queensland , North AustraliaQueensland damage,
queensland storm,
Australian cyclone,
Australia Cyclone Nora

The two most prominent features of the coming week's weather are some fun swirl watching in the Atlantic and severe storms, the worst probably being in Texas and Oklahoma.

The swirl watching should come from the storm over the Mid-Atlantic states.  It should push off over the Carolinas.  When it first spins up and has the most convection it should be half frozen.  Once it detaches from everything and warms up as a storm, it weakens.  NASA's model never shows this firing from the center so it shouldn't make any sort of Sub-tropical classification.

Wednesday and Thursday may be severe weather days for Texas with some spilling into Oklahoma.  Thursday night into Friday the system moves east some as other part of the south begin to take bad weather..notably bad is Mississippi.