Snapshots of Sally
Wundercams From New Orleans to Pensacola
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Paulette and Rene are still both Tropical Storms. Paulette has the better chance to becoming a hurricane and may hit Bermuda on Sunday. It is down to 991mb and has winds of 65kts. Rene has winds of 45kts. 95L is the latest wave off of Africa. There is also two other areas of interest one east and the other west of Florida. The one already in the Gulf of Mexico is expected to move West Southwest. The one east of Florida is expected to move in a general West Northwest direction, this is now 96L. NHC has upped the odds of the one east of Florida to develop to 40% before it moves across the state. Heavy rain is expected in the Bahamas, South Florida and the Florida Keys.
With so many X's around the Southeast and storms in the Atlantic it was time for some self updating graphics.
Some still pics to document the most active days of Hurricane Season 2020..
Approaching the height of Hurricane Season 2020 the tropics are active. Though the upper levels aren't too conducive for monster storms and mad divergence aloft there is the edge of a Kelvin Wave passing thru the Main Development Region.
Paulette and Rene are both Tropical Storms. Paulette and the red X over Africa have the best chance at becoming hurricanes, Rene could also become a hurricane. As to where these go the models are undecided from run to run and have rarely agreed with each other. With multiple storms so close and other maybe storms trying to form, a higher level of uncertainty of forecast is in play. The red X on Africa probably has the best chance of making it across the Atlantic to landfall. Less likely, Paulette or Rene could curve out and circle back around too. Paulette currently has Bermuda in it's cone.
The invest off South Carolina 94L, continues to look less likely to develop. It's recon for the afternoon was cancelled. 94L is running out of time, and is expected to be over Eastern North Carolina by Thursday afternoon. The area that has been over the Bahamas has upped it's odds to develop in the next five days to 20%. It is expected to cross Florida on Friday.
Disaster Days of 2020 Rages On
China Flood Surpasses 1998
A second crewman from the livestock ship that went down in Maysak has been found alive on a raft. The ship stalled and was taken down by a wave with 43 crew and over 5,800 cattle. One crew and a few dozen cattle have been found floating dead. Maysak also killed at least 5 on land by a falling tree, beached crane and windows shattering.
Volcan Fuego, located in Guatemala has been erupting again. Below is Aug 30th. Toward the end of the video a meteor can be seen as well. September 1st it sent ash ~15,000Ft into the sky. The live cams have since gone offline around Fuego. It was reported the lava flows ceased on September 3rd.
Globally we've reached that phase where all the Tropical Depressions and invests either matured to Tropical Cyclones or died. We are left with four storms: Nana & Omar in the Atlantic, Maysak & Haishen in the Western Pacific. Three are threatening land. Embedded graphics for those storms below that should update when refreshed.
10W MAYSAK and 11W HAISHEN
Growing Slide Show of Omar and Nana
Omar was confirmed to still have 35kts by ASCAT and Dvorak CI this evening. The storm is battling heavy shear from the Northeast. It may become a remnant low sometime later on Wednesday. Models have been not at all consistent on this storm. If Omar persists we will most likely see the high come back west, blocking storms from re-curving over the next few weeks.
Check back for more saved images and updates on these storms.
The day started with flooding reports and rescues in Arkansas and North Carolina. Before the day was over nine tornadoes were reported between Arkansas and Texas. There was an entrapment, barn lost a roof, chicken house and warehouses destroyed. Wind reports came from New Mexico to Tennessee, tore off mobile home roofs, flipped a stock trailer, downed trees and causes power outages. There was also three reports of inch size hail.
Beach Tornado in Italy
99L and 90L
99L was declared first and has just entered the Eastern Caribbean. It is developing from a wave that had been building convection in the Main Development Region. CMC was the only model developing this much at first and took it into Central America and the Eastern Pacific where the CMC and other models develop it into a storm. It looks more gamely than models predict so the forecast for this is pretty uncertain.
Another area of interest is over Northeast Florida is now moved offshore and has been designated as 90L. That is expected to become a storm off North Carolina the afternoon of September1st. The ECMWF has this storm run into and take a smaller satellite low around it and absorb it. Either way this moves East-Northeast across the Northern Atlantic, the larger effect plays out on the Atlantic High as a third area of interest that is coming off Africa develops. These two storms move across the Atlantic in opposite directions possibly pumping the ridge from the bottom and top back toward the Western Atlantic and United States, preventing the southern storm from re-curving out to sea.
September Look Ahead
September 2020 overall is expected to be a hot month for the Earth with a few cool pockets left around the Antarctic and Eastern Pacific as La Nina intensifies. The expected well above average heat in the Arctic for this coming Fall should really begin to set in. As a sign to the interesting times ahead Siberia just had a new hydrolaccoliths open up, #17 and it's by far largest one yet, since they first appeared in 2014. These are giant holes or funnels that open up from permafrost melting and methane gas accumulating underground. The gas gathers in a large bubble, deforming the earth into a mound called a pingos until it explodes/gives way to a giant hrydrolaccoliths. This one was much larger and had new findings that haven't been announced yet as they study the data and plan to release scientific papers. Major concern is being noted that from satellite and helicopter inspections many pingos have been spotted, some literally holding up fuel pipelines.
This is the last month above average rain is expected over the Mississippi Valley and Mid-west for a while. Florida and the Mid-Atlantic coastal regions can expect above average rainfall as well with the continued hyper active Hurricane season in process. Central America can expect more devastating flooding as storms generally gravitate more west with La Nina setting in. Globally the southern area of Southeast Asia and the wave train across Africa are also expected to take some of the heavier flooding. India is still expected to have above average rain but it is a little less than August.
The fires out west have added smoke to watch this coming month as well. In the coming week the smoke plume drug across the United States by Laura should work it's way back to thicker smoke along the West Coast.
Best of September to everyone. Arctic Sea Ice is close to a new minimum but probably won't break the record. North America and the Caribbean have taken above average storm damage so far this year and will likely take more, while corona is still wrecking havoc on lives and populations. Look out for each other, stay well and prepared. This too shall pass..
Figure 1: Near Real Time IR of Laura from College of Dupage, Nexlab.
Figure 2. Real time National Hurricane Center Key Messages.
One of the more deadly expected effects from Laura to the Northern Gulf Coast is high storm surge. Evacuation orders in flood prone areas should be followed. Figure 3. NHC Experimental Peak Surge Graphic.
Figure 4. Wunderground Nexrad Radar. Refresh page or revisit to see the latest of these first four images.
Figure 5. A growing slide show of saved Laura images.
Laura Left Damage in Cuba
Cuba had a covid complicated storm as normal evacuation procedures were hampered by keeping people safe from the pandemic. The capital city is still on lock down while the rest of the country was just returning to the new normal. Evacuation went as usual with the addition of masks, hand sanitizer and less shelter capacity in an attempt to shelter the masses in a less huddled manor.
Heavy rain and wind was felt across all of Cuba, some trees and power-lines fell. The shoreline both north and south had damage from flooding and waves. Much of the eastern Cuban town of Baracoa sustained damage to buildings and homes along the seafront. Two fires occurred from Laura, one at a school, the other at a poultry farm. The video below captures some of this and a partial building collapse where people were sheltering.
Above is a growing Marco and Laura slide show.
...HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND MARCO HAS WEAKENED... ...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... Max wind speeds are 70mph. Moving NNW at 12mph. It is forecast to slow down and move west into Louisiana. There is a lot of divergence and disagreeing between the models for both storms. Models have handled Marco a little better. HWRF is the model with least average error so far for Marco. Some of the better preforming models over 5 days on Laura are the UKMET & LGEM. Surge maybe worse for Laura. Sabine Pass, TX is forecast for 8 1/2ft storm surge. Wouldn't be surprised to see Marco land a little east of forecast and Laura to head a little south.
Flooding in Hispaniola from Laura has been devastating. At least 9 died in Haiti and 3 in the Dominican Republic.
Laura struggles on with structure but maintains some convection. Portions of the Leeward Islands can expect Tropical Storm conditions Cone has shifted south a bit.
A look at model performance on Laura has UKMET on top for the three day average. These are top three that have made a storm forecast for Laura that have been running daily for at least three days.
Model error in nm:
model 1 day 2day 3 day
UKMET 79.1 125 110.6
CEMI 74.9 69.9 136.9
TABS 90 115.9 115.8
OFCL now has one 24hr forecast with an error of 67.2nm. It and the top two models also beat out the ECMWF global model which had 83.2nm of error. Lot of uncertainty in play...
14L at times has showed a quick gather of structure but struggles with land, dry air and general lack of convection. It has slowed it's forward speed to 12kts and is maintaining a wind speed of 30kts with gusts to 40kts..
This is a fairly dynamic and hard to predict storm outcome. Either could grow stronger, draw in and devour the other. Marco has structure, Laura has convection. There has been some model runs that make this into one giant circulation. They are both weak and it is more likely they slosh into the gulf one after the other, maybe do a quick dance. It is the current solution, with 14L being favored as a little stronger.
Images note: All the images up to this point including the Key Messages but excluding the Tropical Depression 14 slide show, updates when the page is refreshed.
Wunderground Community on the Move
The comments on Wunderground are gone.. We are flying the coop to YCC. The commenting section there is different but we are figuring it out. There will be an upgrade there sometime this Fall. Here is the link to Eye on the Storm section, just select the latest blog. Give it a try. Many are still posting on the last blog comment section for WU on the disqus mirror site. We don't know how long that might last.
Figure 1. Two day outlook from NHC. Refresh page for latest.
NHC has three areas of interest in the Atlantic. 97L now Tropical Depression 14, is in the Caribbean and is expected to move toward the Yucatan Peninsula and then the Gulf Coast. The storm in the Central Atlantic is Tropical Depression 13L. Models are currently gunning for South Florida the most but there is a bit of spread and they are still shifting around. Third is a new wave stepping off Africa.
Tropical Depression 13L
Figure 2. A slide show of 13L. This is a work in progress with new pics and gifs added regularly.
Figure 3. NHC Key Messages for Tropical Storm 13.
97L- Now Tropical Depression 14
Figure 3. A slide show of 97L. This is a work in progress with new pics and gifs added regularly.
Figure 4. NHC Key Messages for Tropical Storm 13.
Global Tropics Continue to be Active But Weak