A pattern is evolving bringing a most likely prolonged heavy rain event, with periods of intense rainfall and flooding.  There is a large scale amplification of the western U.S. trough, blocked by a ridge in the Atlantic, bringing much moisture from the Caribbean up in front of a slow moving frontal zone across eastern TX into the lower-mid MS Valley and OH Valley. PWATs are near record to record values from east TX all the way into the Great Lakes region. Shortwave energy through the upper Midwest had tightened the deep layer gradients and associated broad upper level jet streak. This is expected to push eastward over the next three days. The excessive rain has already begun to melt existing snow adding to the threat of flooding.  The Mississippi River is expected to rise and flood where the Ohio River and the Mississippi join sending a pulse of extra water down, cresting inMemphis, TN on March 4th. 

Tuesday Evening into early Wednesday

Cyclone Deluge | 9 News Perth 9 News Perth
Published on Feb 18, 2018Tropical Cyclone Kelvin has battered WA's Kimberley with a cattle station caught in the eye of the destructive storm. The system made landfall as a category 2 cyclone - bringing winds of up to 150 kilometres an hour.

Country prepares for Cyclone Gita WeatherDisastersTV
Published on Feb 9, 2018Days of heavy downpour has taken a toll on some parts of the big island of Savai’i as the country hunkers down to await the arrival of what has now been named as Cyclone Gita.  The Category 1 cyclone is expected to hit Samoa within the next 24 hours.  In the meantime, a video posted on Facebook shows water ripping through a family’s home, sweeping properties along the way including a family vehicle.  Elsewhere on the big island, transportation has been severely restricted, as a number of fords have been flooded and cannot be crossed.  The notorious Maliolio river has burst and members of the public have been warned to take extra care.  Overnight flights to Fiji were cancelled.  Ferry trips between Savai’i and Upolu were cancelled yesterday.  Some schools have already sent students home for the day. According to the latest update from the Samoa Met Office, the country should expect winds to pick up tomorrow morning.

As an observer of all things fuego it was time to check in on the volcano with all this geological unrest.  NOAA Satellites also put out some footage on twitter.

Part of Hurricane Harvey disaster relief has been unemployment for those whose job was lost due to the storm.  This will be ending February 24th.  Those affected are encouraged to seek work or enroll in job training, more info and opportunities here.

ESPI remains steady at -1.10

The evolution of the storm pulling moisture from the Gulf of Mexico this coming weekend still looks likely.  The Northeast maybe not as impacted as this trends east.  Severe weather outlooks have varied in intensity.  Coastal areas looking most impacted now.

Looking at tomorrow storms are only expected in the far corners of the nation with some lake effect snow.  The storm coming to California doesn't look like it will effect the mudslide area in Southern California.  Good progress has been made, Highway 101 has been open since Sunday.  All the dranage ways are yet to be cleared though.  The next 10days should be dry for this area with the precipitation impacts reaching from Canada through Central California.

The storm just beginning to impact the west coast now will be one to watch as it traverses the country and pulls moisture from the Gulf of Mexico.  Though not looking as ominous as modeled a few days ago it could bring more severe weather than the storm that came through last (video below).  The cold shouldn't come as far south but maybe more moisture out of the gulf for the southeastern states over the coming weekend.  Monday, January 29th maybe a rough travel day across the Northeast with heavy snow on the west side of the storm and less frozen precipitation along much of the coastal areas.

On Monday, January 22,2018 around 9am an Oklahoma Gas well exploded near Quinton.  Five workers have been missing since.  Their names have beenreleased today:

• Josh Ray, 35, Fort Worth, Texas
• Matt Smith, 29, McAlester, Oklahoma
• Cody Risk, 26, Wellington, Colorado
• Parker Waldridge, 60, Crescent, Oklahoma
• Roger Cunningham, 55, Seminole, Oklahoma
  

The explosion was so large it could been seen from GOES-16

Fort Fowl going solar has been on my to do list for a few years now.  In that time, kept an eye out and collected a few bits of the solar set up.  A 12V 35AH deep cycle battery (like this one) was acquired on the cheap in a trade more than a year ago, the 700W inverter came to me more recently off a local scrapper's truck.  After Irma with no electricity, found myself trickle charging the battery with a 5watt solar cell and hooking that to a single 12volt outlet plug, similar to what is found in a car.  It was time to get this project done.  Ordered one of the few available at the time, this solar kit that comprised of two 100watt panels, mounting brackets, all needed cords to connect the panels together and to the also included solar charge controller.  Between all the hurricanes and long duration power outages there seemed to be a  shortage at the time.   The kit came late with a broken connector.  With time and a little effort it eventually all arrived in working order.

Attaching the solar panels to the hen house roof with the mounting brackets was a fairly easy task.  Have yet to run the wires out of sight and tidy up this project so it seemed like the perfect time to share pictures of how this working system is put together.  For now the wires from the panel are just fished in through a back window of Fort Fowl.

Two 100W panels would probably be a bit of overkill if this was to just power Fort Fowl.  All that is needed in there is some lights, a fan and somewhere to plug in a laptop or device.  Fort Fowl is central to the whole barn area that lacked electricity.  A place to plug in power tools, a vacuum pump for the bucket milker and fans for the herd and chickens would be handy.  A more powerful set up could be a source of power in an outage for the house and refrigerator too. 

With my needs and wants assessed, went with 200W total for solar panels, 15A charge controller, that 35AH 12volt battery (may add a second one eventually) and two inverters~ one is 250W for the fort's needs and the 700watt inverter for the rest that draws more.

Above is a close up of the Solar Charge Controller.  It's function is to tie all the parts together and keep the energy flowing in the proper directions.  These are crucial to a solar generator set up, look for them to be included in a solar generator kit sized to match the panels it comes with.  Read and follow all instructions, consult with a professional if this is a first larger solar project or start small and study up.  The process of converting sunlight to usable electricity is fairly simple and safe, though it complicates some and has more potential to harm as a solar generator's size and power grows.

Here is another view of the wires and parts.  Wires come in the window to the Solar Charge Controller which is also wired to the battery and the load. 

For the load a 12V DC outlet strip with three outlets was selected.  Something like this one, heavy duty with a 15 Amp fuse built in and an on/off switch.  From the 12V DC outlets various 12volt devices or inverters can be plugged in.  Converting 12volt DC (Direct Current) to 110 AC (Alternating Current) uses electricity and is done by an inverter. The higher watt the inverter the more is lost, so it can save to have inverters for various uses.  The (actually a) 200W one selected for this set up has three 110AC outlets, four USB plugs (two 2.4A & two 1A) and an on/off switch. 

Soon the battery should be moving into the bottom of the kitchenette cabinet along with the charge controller.  The wires coming in the window will be rerouted to come up from the bottom of the fort into the cabinet.  The 12V DC outlet strip may get mounted on the side of the cabinet where inverters or a 12V extension cord can be plugged in.  The 700W inverter may get put in line to a vacuum system for milking the cow.  To finish off the fort upgrade will be furniture for bigger kids including some sort of craft table.  The hammocks aren't going anywhere..

Watching cold air spill across the mid and eastern half of North America as a clipper comes through bringing winter precipitation deep into Texas and all the way through the Northeast.  By afternoon saw reports of snow in Southern Mississippi.  Snow is also falling in Western North Carolina.  I'll leave the PARI Cam, as it may be snow covered by morning.

Friday the front and low should come together over the east causing some weather.  May see a little severe weather in the south.  The Northeast should start with rain turning to sleet, ice and probably snow on the backside of it for most into Saturday.

Look out Monday and Tuesday for a clipper type system to bring a moderate snow across the Plains and Midwest before anchoring heavily over the Great Lakes and then swinging into the still frozen East.

The Santa Barbra County mudslides have been a devastating second act to the Thomas Fire.  At least 17 people have died, 40 were injured, 43 others are missing.  At least 100 homes were destroyed.  The evacuation area was expanded today.  Many of those evacuated are being told it maybe 5 days before they get to return home.

Below is a video featuring some of the scenes that have come from this disaster.  Some of it is from Oprah's backyard.  The Gray Prius pictured was certainly one of the more memorable ones.  It opens with the mud sloshing around the corner in the street, with this Prius riding the wave through the S-curve with windshield wipers and lights on.  It gets rinsed by the camera then quickly rounds the bend out of sight down the road.  It turns out they made it unscathed.  Everyone was evacuating, this guy and his girlfriend were one of the last ones out as the hill started down the already muddy street.  The mudslide caught up to their car and swept them on from there til the bottom of the hill where they got out of it.  The car drove away from the incident with onlya few scratches.

Car Speeds Down Road Trying To Escape Fast Moving River of Mud Inside Edition
Published on Jan 10, 2018 Dramatic new video of the California mudslides is emerging as a car sped down a narrow road trying to flee from a fast moving river of mud and debris. Many people ignored warnings to evacuate, never expecting the mudslides would cause so much havoc. Hillsides which were stripped of vegetation by recent fires simply collapsed in the torrential rain. Oprah inspected the damage outside her California mansion in Montecito, which has been ground zero for the devastating mudslides.