Recovery in the Bahamas from Dorian continues. Some of the most detailed and inclusive stories out there are from here. It is a first person account with stories of their friends and others they fled with after the storm. One of the most hair raising accounts was about a guy who grabbed his snorkel, boogie board and wetsuit as his house was coming apart. He rode out the rest of the storm in his cistern.
Below is a video of a boat owner who's huge catamaran ended up on a major road.
The first link ends with several places to give. Florida has many places taking item donations to the Bahamas. State Farm and Wings of Grace are two drop off points for the donation of goods.
Melbourne was chaotic today with storm plans going into action. The roads were crazy. No water was the most frequent report. Some gas lines and stations without. Near a third of the houses in the neighborhood are shuttered.
From yesterday's blog Cooper's Island of the Virgin Island's was the first of the three cameras posted to come back online after the passage of Dorian.
Included today is a live buoy that Dorian should pass near. More nearby ships and buoys can be found here.
As of 12z 8/30 UKMET model is still winning on Dorian. That family of models has ~70-90nm of error at 3 days. OFCL has improved from yesterday but still lags UKMET suite with 138.7nm of error at 3 days. Average intensity for all the models is still running over, at 3 days average intensity error is over by 19.1kts.
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It is currently looking pretty doom for the Space Coast but note the cone is wide, uncertainty is still in play. All along the East Coast of Florida and Georgia should think over their storm plans. Today is the day to do things you would have to do anyways, laundry, cleaning, outdoor pick up. Is it going to be a Labor Day Party or a Hurricane Party?...the supplies aren't too different. But plan for both. It's a good time to make back up Evacuation Labor Day Party plans if you usually have to leave. Don't forget the pets needs. Most of the Florida Peninsula is forecast for several inches of rain over the next week. Clear drains and ditches.
Looking at model verification for Dorian, the UKMET family is in the lead. OFCL led until the 12Zruns. Overall storm model performance has been some what poor. The big jump north it took after reforming from hitting some Windward Islands really added to overall error. Average models error at 2 days is 99.8 nautical miles, 3 day error is 164.5nm. EGR2, which is the UKMET model Interpolated 12 hours, has an error of 46.2nm at 3 days. Another close model in the UKMET family, the EGRI is running 2nd with 3 day error at 54.8nm. UKX2 which is UKMET [GFS tracker] (Interpolated 06 hours) has an error of 57.5nm at 3 days. Rarely do we see a model outdoing the Official Forecast, but that is the current case. OFCL has 62.2nm error at 3 days. They are not far off the lead & certainly the one to watch as Dorian gets past the islands.
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