Barely pulled together a last look and final forecast for the 2019 Hurricane Season after chasing the heat wave and great tunes around Florida. Started with the Frontier Weather, Inc ENSO Weather Analog Calculator. With updated averages and a slightly warmer looking forecast the analog years came out as pictured below.
Really only considered the top five and 1927. The flooding in the midwest and Canada has been most comparable to this year. 1993 is in there, another flooded year for that region. Did toss the number 1 for being a bit of an outlier, year of Camile.
Years with higher rains and tornadoes in the Midwest tend to have less storms. The Atlantic is over due for less storms. The cyclone switch seems off now with the storms on land mode in place. Even though shear is falling Vertical Instability seems low in most areas. The Atlantic has already seen it's first Tropical Storm of the year. Looking through the other analog years, the first storm could be in May or in August. So with less confidence than some years, went with 11-9-4-3. Overall there was less method and scrutiny applied than in some years. The Midwest flooding weighted heavy this year.
Looking at the Vertical Instability and Sea Surface Temperatures the areas of greatest risk looked to be the East Coast, followed by the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.
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