Tropics look quiet for now. This weekend's area to watch may be overland as a low comes over South Dakota & Iowa to strengthen over the Great Lakes before dipping Southeast and weakening. Along the way it may cause some severe weather and heavy rains to it's east and southeast sides. Models have been back and forth about a brief weak tropical or subtropical storm forming near the coast. Looks doubtful with all the land interaction and proximity of the parent low. Weather along the Northeast coast should get interesting either way. The pattern of a higher latitude placed high pressure in the Atlantic with winter pattern like storms coming across CONUS with this squeeze of heavy weather at times playing out from the Appalachians to the Northeast coast is likely to continue. May see things shift to overall wetter with more tropical weather near the end of the month when the MJO comes back to America.
July / August /September
NASA's July forecast run is out. Posted below is the Sea Surface Temperature anomaly and Precipitation anomaly for July, August and September. No major changes from before. It has over time backed away from a fast evolving El Nino and now leans more neutral with cooler water up welling in the East Pacific. Overall the trend for a drier Caribbean and more home grown storms still looks likely for the first half of the Atlantic season. With Sea Surface Temperatures expected to be arranged as such more floods in India, Japan and China wouldn't be surprising.
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