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Elsa brushed Haiti and Jamaica. The waves were notable. Crossed Cuba with 60mph winds and heavy rain. Elsa was disrupted by the crossing enough the effect in The Keys was overall windy. 70MPH was the highest recorded, on Key West at the airport. 63MPH winds were reported from Sand Key. RV campers mostly stayed. There was wind, rain and some waves. Tampa Area impact: Once to Florida, Longboat Key had winds to 60mph, Bradenton to 54mph, Clearwater Beach 59mph. SR64 and the Rail Road tracks are closed in Wachula from flooding. North Port and Cape Coral also have multiple roads closed due to flooding. Brandon and Carolwood area saw multiple trees come down. North Florida: 1 fatality occurred from a tree falling on two cars on Roosevelt Blvd in Jacksonville. A tornado was also spotted on radar and media there. PRIVATE PROPERTY DAMAGE NEAR PHILLIPS HIGHWAY AND BOWDEN ROAD occured. THERE WAS ALSO COMMERCIAL PARK AND PRIVATE PROPERTY DAMAGE ON POWERS AVENUE AND BOWENDALE AVENUE. A radar indicated tornado was spotted in Camron, GA NEAR HEAVILY DAMAGED RV PARK NEAR KINGSBAY NAVAL SUBMARINE BASE. Trees came down and power was lost in some parts of Duval County. 45mph winds were reported in Brunswick, GA. 58mph winds were measured in Glynn, GA Slideshow of Elsa from near Haiti to Georgia. The storm surge at Clearwater Beach was captured on the beach cam. The overnight hours looked more intense as far as rain and a close lightning flash. The highest water occurred late morning at high tide with a 3ft surge. Made for a nice tide pool for people to enjoy the rest of the day. Simon Brewer does an excellent job capturing the surge in Horse Beach. It covers roads, laps at houses. This area took some damage. Brett Adair / Live Storms Media at Suwannee, FL as Elsa passes through. Texas No Name Storm This has been hanging out and pouring on parts of Texas a few days now. Rockport has had some of the deeper water images coming out of there. To see a dump truck that deep in flood.. Stay out of the water. This video has got some beat. CN Post A flash flood emergency is in effect until 4:45 p.m. Wednesday for central Aransas County, which includes the coastal communities of Rockport, Fulton, Copano Village and Key Allegro. According to the National Weather Service, between 3 and 6 inches of rain have fallen in the area over the past few hours and another inch of rain is possible. Flash flooding is already occurring and NWS officials are calling the flooding “a particularly dangerous situation.” Residents are urged to seek higher ground and to be aware of flooding at low-water crossings, small creeks and streams, urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses. In Other Tropics Tropical Depression 8 in the Western Pacific has moved inland, nearly to Laos. It has winds of 30kts with a forward speed of 10kts. It is weakening and expected to dissipate in 36hrs.
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Slideshow: Various GOES-East captures from the afternoon of July 1st to the evening of July 3rd. Elsa approached the islands as a named Tropical Storm. It strengthened into a hurricane as it passed over Barbados and then weakened during the day to a strong Tropical Storm before nearing Hispaniola. As soon as the sun went down Elsa began to strengthen again.
Self updating Key Messages from Nation Hurricane Center.
Self-updating Key Messages from the NHC..
NHC
Elsa came from a tropical wave in the Main Development Region. It's approaching the Windward Islands where Tropical Storm Warnings are in place.
Looking at storm model verification for all the models, UKMET and that suite is the only ones really with a clue about forecast location so far. Here are Elsa forecast error in Nautical Miles every 12hrs starting at 0hr. EGR2 UKMET global model (Interpolated 12 hours) 0 26.6 23.7 - EGRI UKMET global model (Interpolated 6 hours) 0 66.7 23.7 46.7 UKX UKMET [GFS tracker] 20.1 62.9 78.8 80.7 UKX2 UKMET [GFS tracker] (Interpolated 12 hours) 0 28.2 26.6 - UKXI UKMET [GFS tracker] (Interpolated 6 hours) 0 54.7 42.7 59.6 Best of the Rest goes to: TVCX Consensus Track Guidance (2018 version, consensus of at least two of: AVNI, EGRI, HWFI, EMXI [double weight], CTCI) 0 43.7 74.3 89.2 NHC track is pretty much following this guidance with the current cone centered on that path over Cuba and the Keys. Lytton, BC Evacuated
After three days of record highs including one of 49.6C (121F) Lytton, BC caught a fire and it's 1000 or so residents fled for their lives.
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