The the blob of moisture has some mid-level spin to but is not really expected to develop.  It hasn't been declared anything other than a rain maker.  It may bring 15-20 inches of rain to Corpus Christ and a large area mostly north and northeast from there.

The jellyfish invasion in Volusia County continues as do the onshore winds.  2,500 people have been stung in the last 10 days in that county. After 350 were stung the first day people have scoffed at the warnings and braved the jellies.  Vinegar is best to neutralize the stings.  Seek a lifeguard.  These have had extra brittle tentacles that may need tweezers to remove.  Don't rub them in, makes is worse.

In 1993 it was coming out through research that trans-fats were killing people with heart disease.  In 2004 the Center for Science in the Public Interest petitioned the FDA to take the hydrogenated fats out of food.  Fourteen years later it's finally coming to pass.  Special thanks to Michael Jacobson and others that fought for this and everyone that has stopped buying products containing trans-fats.  The social media shaming was instrumental in stopping some of the big restaurants from serving up a recommended weekly allowance of trans-fats in one meal.  For more click here.

My opinion~ this garden probably isn't a total loss.  Some of the cooler weather veggies should not lose too much production over it.  Moving hail away from tender plant stems can help save them.

Louisville Colorado Hail Storm June 18th, 2018 Erick Gilbert
Published on Jun 18, 2018Louisville Colorado Hail Storm June 18th, 2018

So far this June Earth seems to have shifted to even more a state of unrest.  Volcanoes have come to life and the earthquake maps are lit up...with so many in Hawaii.
June 16 2018 11:54 AM Mt. Sakurajima Volcano Aomori Prefecture, Japan Volcano Eruption
June 14 2018 02:03 PM Volcan Santo Tomas, Galapagos Island of Isabela, Galapagos Island Volcano Activity
June 14 2018 04:50 AM Mount Agung volcano Island of Bali, Indonesia Volcano Eruption
June 11 2018 02:30 AM Great Sitkin Volcano State of Alaska, USA Volcano Activity
June 04 2018 03:22 AM Fuego Volcano Chimaltenango, Escuintla, Guatemala Volcano Eruption
June 01 2018 12:44 PM Mt Merapi Volcano Central Java, Indonesia Volcano Eruption
May 21 2018 07:51 AM Mount Merapi Volcano Central Java, Indonesia Volcano Eruption
May 04 2018 04:14 AM Kilauea volcano State of Hawaii, USA

651 earthquakes occurred today. The strongest was 5.3, located 5km WSW of Volcano, Hawaii.  Current stats from tertrema.

This is still an unpredictable tropical disturbance.  Lot of moisture and factors in play.  GEOS-5 and other models has it rain on Texas and North Mexico.  Remnants and another wave may compile to set it off in the Bay of Campeche, week after next. 

Brent Weldon
Published on Jun 15, 2018Giant Waves hit the Wedge. This was one of the best swells I have witnessed at Wedge. You definitely had to be at the right place at the right time. Easily some of the best waves I have ever seen. Some of the hardest poundings i have taken. Using my Sony A7SII and My Aquatech Water-housing to get these Watershots. Some waves were perfect some waves destroyed you. June 11th, 2018 was incredible and a day I will never forget.

All The Wedge guys were charging. Surfers Mike Harris, Tommy Cantrell, Alex Johnston, Brad Ettinger, Mitchell Grant, Brad Domke and more(tag them if you know them.

Bodyboarders include: Mike Lucas (Man of Water), Hideto Shibata, and more (tag them if you know them)

Song: EEkkoo Lunr - lost

Hurricane Bud was down graded today as he hit cooler waters but not before drowning alot of cars and causing coastal flooding damage.

It has been raining Olivine Crystals from Kilauea.  Over 50% of the earth's crust it composed of this green mineral or variations of.  Usually it is bound with lava or other rocks.  Kilauea is blowing bits of it free that is then raining down in areas near the the eruptions.  So far the gems have reported to be small and not life threatening when falling from the sky.  When Olivine is in it's quality gemstone form it is known as peridot. 

Hawaii's Kilauea volcano starts raining green gems
#Civil Disturbia
Published on Jun 13, 2018The scene around Hawaii’s Kilauea Volcano, now in its fifth week of intense eruption, has taken a turn for the surreal.
Amid the ash-grey skies and flame-streaked lava spilling from the volcano’s fissures, tiny, glittering green gems are appearing, at times even raining from the sky.

Published on Jun 10, 2018
Torrential rains compounded by a clogged drainage pipe caused between 20 and 30 vehicles to flood during the Dave Matthews Band concert at Jiffy Lube Live, Prince William County Fire and Rescue said. STORY: http://bit.ly/2xZMXc2

The National Levee Database is now available to be perused by the public.  Turns out nationwide there is 8,798 Levee Systems containing 29,124 Miles of Levees.  There is 46,507 Levee Structures and the Average Levee Age is 55 years old.  It was easy to check out the levee system built nearby in 1991.  Found 24 miles of embankment levee well west of Palm Bay on the west side of the river.  It was last been inspected in 2015 and deemed unacceptable.

The height of Lake Okeechobee recently spiked with all the rain to over 14 foot.  The locks on both sides of Florida were opened so the Lake could be lowered.  This has affected water quality in the canals, locks and beaches they flow into.   Here is the daily Lake height and flow rates through the various canals.

To the east:
6.1 billion gallons of Lake Okeechobee water has been discharged to the St. Lucie River since June 1.
27.3 billion gallons of water has flowed through St. Lucie Lock and Dam since May 8.

Brown algae blooms has been reported at:
Shepard Park, where Frazier Creek enters the river in downtown Stuart
Palm City on the north side of the Palm City Bridge
Port Mayaca, where Lake Okeechobee water is discharged toward the St. Lucie River
St. Lucie Lock and Dam
Much of the C-44 Canal connecting Lake O and the St. Lucie.
Indian River Lagoon
Blue green toxic algae has been found in lower levels in Port Mayaca

Above is the various Lake Okeechobee levels over time in blue.

Below the Mayor from Sanibel Island speaks out as the area loses tourist due to the Lake run off.

Sanibel Mayor speaks out on Lake Okeechobee runoff Published on Jun 8, 2018The mayor of Sanibel wrote a letter to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineering, addressing the concern that the runoff from Lake Okeechobee was damaging quality of life on the island and affecting the local tourism economy.

Wednesday the 2018 Water Resources Development Act was passed by the US House, that included a Reservoir for Lake Okeechobee.  The project should help relieve the flooding threat and filter water more so than release it straight to the ocean.  The Senate is expected to vote on it's version of the bill this summer.  Florida passed a similar bill this past year.  Nearly 500 acres has already been purchased, mostly from the Seventh Day Baptists.  Below is a map of the reservoir project area.

With the various volcanoes venting and seemingly more than some years nearer to the equator, thought it might be a good time to glance at SO2 in the atmosphere.

First a look from NASA at the different sources of SO2.  This gas that can cool the atmosphere for a few years after major eruptions not only comes from volcanoes, but from human endeavors such as oil and gas exploration, power plants and smelting.

Looking at the GEOS-5 Chem model, specifically SO2 Col Mass the various sources can be seen belching varied amounts.  Fuego and Kilauea can easily be spotted in the GEOS forecast.  Both their plumes are headed in a generally west direction as is other volcanoes in the equatorial region from the Caribbean through Central Pacific.  The western edge of the Ring of Fire has the SO2 being swept north and south toward the poles and back eastward.  Some additional close up graphics of Kilauea SO2 plume from NOAA can be found here.

According to the Guam Weather Office Vog from Kilauea has already affected the Marshell Islands and is expected to impact Kosrae, Pohnpei and possibly Chuuk in the Federated States of Micronesia this week.

This seems like a tougher year to forecast the number of storms ahead. Don't really see ENSO being a limiting factor. We are going into this with the switch not thrown. Globally storms have been scarce and weaker recently or more on land. The other basins have had fewer than their share overall so far too which tends to lend to a busier Atlantic Season or WPAC. There has also been alot of mid-'70s references in the records broken the last few months. Of my analog years 4 have a high number of depressions with about half as many named storms. Two had high number of storms and high number of named storms (both were more recent analog years). The other two years had low storms and named storms. Looking at that, the trend so far and with lesser confidence I'll go 19 (depressions) -16 (named storms) -10 (hurricanes) -4 (major storms). Considering SSTs and such, I'm trending toward it being a year more likely to have land-falling storms. Main Development Region (well out in the Atlantic) may never really heat up but closer to land maybe plenty warm for homegrown storms. This SST forecast also lends to maybe relatively more for the Atlantic than WPAC.

The most active volcano in Central America, Volcan de Fuego has erupted for the second time this year.  This one was a bit larger and has killed atleast seven people.  Twenty were injured, many more are missing and assumed buried in ash or lava.  El Rodeo Village had lava come into it and is one of the harder affected areas.  3,100 people have had to evacuate from nearby communities.  Shelters are open.  Over all this is affecting around 1.7million people.  Ash is falling on Guatemala City, Sacatepequez, Chimaltenango, Escuintla and the tourist town of Antigua.  More here.

An eighteen-year-old girl singing her song in front of lava Published on Jun 3, 2018Eighteen-year-old Hawaiian resident Kumsa Maphalala sings the song "Burn It Down" in a few meters from vocalno Kilauea lava.

Kumsa composed this song in May, when Kilauea's fissures eruption has been started

Weather was wild in various parts of the United States again today.  Two death occurred in the Northeast.  One in Connecticut the other New York.  Both were in a car when a tree fell on it.  Three people were injured from falling branches and another kid was injured when a dugout roof collapsed.  Damage was scattered from Texas to the Northeast.  There was two tornadoes, one in NY the other IL.  Ties for big hail at 2 3/4" between TX & NY.  Lots of wind reports.  Many trees blown down, power outages and roof damage.  A few buildings were reported as destroyed.  Roof loss occurred to homes, warehouses, a church and a Duncan Donuts.

Published on May 15, 2018
***NOT FOR BROADCAST***
Contact Brett Adair with Live Storms Media to license.
brett@livestormsnow.com

Tornado watch: Rotating cloud spotted in Connecticut MassLive
Published on May 15, 2018A funnel cloud rotates above Lake McDonough in Barkhamsted, Conn., as an intense thunderstorm moves toward Southern Massachusetts on May 15, 2018.

Weather patterns are changing as a mid-level low is taking shape in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico and an inverted trough approaches from the Atlantic.  This should eventually feed moisture to the north to meet up with the precipitation still streaming through the Northeast on the jet stream.  The Eastern half of the USA is looking at a lot of rain coming this week.  For Florida the rain may continue on into a second week as some models are hinting at an early start to hurricane season.

It's time to pick-up outside and clear drains.  Some areas along the East Coast of Florida are expected to have over 7 inches of rain in the next week.  It is also a great time to get in the gardens to pull weeds, fertilize and plant.  With all the rain ahead a lot of growth is about to happen and once this all clears out in a few weeks it will be about into June and Meteorological Summer heat.  Plant that summer garden now!

Leaving some self updating graphics for the rain event. Refresh or revisit this page to see the latest.

Horses rain dance SmokeyZN
Published on Sep 17, 2011My horses doing the rain dance under the sprinkler

 Figure1: Oceanic Niño Index: 3 month running mean of ERSST.v4 SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region (5°N-5°S, 120°-170°W) Calculated from the ERSST V5 (at NOAA/CPC).  Credit: ERSL/NOAA  

The graph above compares this past La Nina that has just ended to other recent La Nina events.  2017-18 is pictured in black.  It was a weak La Nina but clusters well with other events ending in the spring.  Below is a look at these similar years tropical storms histories (depressions - tropical storms - hurricanes - major hurricanes).
1956 15-12-4-1
1971 22-13-6-1
1974 21-11-4-2
1976 23-10-6-2
1989 15-11-7-2
2000 19-15-8-3
2011 20-19-7-4
The average storm numbers for the Atlantic are 10.1 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.5 major hurricanes.  So these years listed shows well above average tropical cyclones, slightly elevated number of hurricanes and average number of Major hurricanes.
Also throwing out there a year seen mentioned a lot in the broken records and similarities, especially for the Northeast.  It was a neutral year coming off an El Nino.
1907 5-5-0-0
Looking at Tornado numbers through March..  There is some research showing low spring tornadoes can end in more hurricanes hitting land.  This spring there has certainly been less tornadoes than usual with only 62 preliminary reports through March.  Other years with similar numbers include:
1952 11-11-5-2
1953 14-14-7-3
1955 13-13-10-4
1959 14-14-7-2
1963 9-9-7-2
1979 26-9-5-2
1989 15-11-7-2
1992 10-7-4-1
1993 10-8-4-1
1995 21-19-11-5
1999 16-12-8-4
2004 16-15-9-6
2005 31-28-15-7
Though the numbers here were average to above average, the big take away seems to be the track maps showing the much higher likely hood of landfalls on the Gulf of Mexico/Florida regions with the East Coast also showing a somewhat raised risk.

Before coming up with seasonal forecast numbers we'll need an in depth look at the global tropics scene.  That will be another blog..

Cited references..
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, State of the Climate: Tornadoes for March 2018, published online April 2018, retrieved on May 12, 2018 from https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/tornadoes/201803.