Figures 1-3 show NASA's GMAO S2S_2.1 temperature anomaly forecast for Jan - Sep 2021. Compared to last month the expected break in heat for the Arctic has been delayed. The next few months show the Western Hemisphere holding on to the heat as the remaining cold is displaced to Eurasia. La Nina keeps strong through April when it's cooling effects are expected to take more to the atmosphere and temper the temperature a bit.
Figures 4-6 show NASA's GMAO S2S_2.1 precipitation anomaly forecast for Jan - Sep 2021. Globally it shows an overall decline in excessive rain as the year progresses, which is expected in an extended La Nina. Spring planting Season for North America could face some drought issues with an overall dry month of May. The Southeast in particular has been consistently forecast to see a notable drought until June.
EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
ENSO is currently in moderate La Nina conditions, with this week's region 3.4 coming in at -1.2. At the end of January the ONI average should be such this becomes an official La Nina event. The atmospheric conditions are in line with La Nina. Average SOI for the last 30 days is 18.25. The daily contribution for January 5, 2021 is 20.07.
Figure 7. NASA GMAO S2S_2.1 SST anomaly forecast for region 3.4 is denoted by the bold green line. I'm leaning ~0.2C warm of this forecast. The guess is based on it's recent errors caught in the validation process. The general direction of the forecast has been generally correct just a little cold bias. This overall forecasts a strong to very strong La Nina winter, moving into a weak La Nina to possibly cool neutral ENSO conditions by late summer.
Alerts have been issued and resident evacuations on the Eastern Caribbean Islands of St Vincent and the Grenadines are under way. La Soufriere volcano could erupt in less than 24hrs. Authorities are advising that nearby homes should be evacuated immediately.
Figure 8. Actual volcano disasters in the Eastern Caribbean from the last 300yrs.
Credit: University of the West Indies Seismic Center located in Tobago.
Volcano and a Meteor Shower
Video 1: Popocatepeti Volacano in Mexico blowing smoke in a meteor shower.
This is a look back through the highlights and notable moments from my 2020 weather folder. Each month is it's own slideshow. Most of these images were downloaded from satellites or radars, some I took, a few friends shared and a handful I don't have any rights to but they somehow found their way into my computer and were thought worthy of sharing again.
Started with Calvinia in the Southern Hemisphere. There was a spectacular Falcon launch that ended in an explosion. A few sections of Trump's wall blew down and my recycling bin blew in the ditch. Rounded this month out with a meme to help some friends see volcanoes were not currently the main producers of Carbon Monoxide.
Snow birds were easily spotted in the mornings on radar. Valentines Day had no ice at the North Pole. Launch! Neighbor's trash can looked to have had a bit too much to drink. The lead cow of a herd that had washed to a different island during Dorian the year before calved. It snowed in Pisgah Forest.
Tornadoes traipsed through as storm season got going. Northeast had a spring nor'easter. Some began preparing for the coming pandemic. Moon and contrails caught together. More things align signalling a worsening state. View from my favorite buoy 41010. Swirl Watch is on as gender reveal parties become the new rage on how to burn it all down.
Honduras and much of Central America burned sending smoke to Florida and the South. Another very severe line of storms came through the south with tornadoes. Earth Day we were reminded areas of bad air pollution were being impacted by corona harsher, as more tornadoes traipsed the land. With the clearer skies rainbows were becoming more common and tornadoes seemed to produce them as well. The first tropical depression formed in the Eastern Pacific. 2020 started to really show what it had as parts of Chernobyl was overtaken by wildfire. Mask production was ramping up. More tornadoes and rainbows as lock down went into week two. It became apparent that the apocalypse handbook has some mistakes.
Amphan brought more flooding to an already hard hit area. Swirl watching continued into my backyard. Eventually a manned Dragon launch occurred after some weather delays and locals struggled with distancing. The New River Flooded and the Sears tower looked alive without power.
Christabol weakened near impact. Another east coastal blob formed. Dolly happened. A tornado came through Tylertown, MS. Friends were sharing rainbows. The dust was notable, 2005 like even. There was a solar eclipse on the other side of the world. More rainbows here.
Dust hazes the sky. Fay came up the east coast. People searched for the comet Neowise. Another infamous 90L formed. Douglas in the Eastern Pacific put on a show. Hanna came for Texas. Isaias moved through the north eastern Caribbean. The governor of Florida was renamed to better suit his leadership style.
Isaias mostly spared Florida despite the memes. Derocho storm swept out electricity. Laura made landfall. Maysak tried to keep the Pacific in the storm totals running.
99L set the tone for a stormy month as sharks were being removed from power lines in Laura leftovers. Had a Falcon launch. The Smoke from the west was worsening again. 19L formed and then Paulette and Rene. Sally flooded Duval St in the Keys as inhabitants embraced the season & went out anyways. Black Carbon map showing ridiculous smoke as homes burned out west and Sally approached from the south. NWS got in on 2020 doom memes trying to save lives. Sally flooded Pensacola among other places. Teddy formed as did Beta. A blob pulled together and rolled across Florida raising the Indian River to levels most of us had never seen while bringing more rain to an already soggy state.
Was a month of Greek named storms starting with Gamma, who was consummed by Delta. Delta came into the northern Gulf of Mexico with such a surge that some of the storm chasers were left scrambling. Another undesgnated Florida blob slowly gathered and came through. The ground was so wet with rain a few trees fell, including one into a friend's pool. Epsilon and Zeta formed. Zeta also came at the Northern Gulf with a high surge.
Starts with the damage evaluation from the month before. Houses had been rearranged like monopoly pieces and the Gulf of Mexico was trashed. The number of towns and subdivisions lost out west was hard for some to comprehend. 2020 at times overwelmed some into a deep denial of reality. It seemed to peak as election time rolled around. Goni became a Super Typhoon in the West Pacific. Long live Eta formed and danced with Iota, both devistating Central America. Eta lived on to visit Florida and to give one last scare looking like a skull as it encountered the state. Finally a great front came through bringing the start of Winter, which the Georgia Wooly Worms forecast to be warm.
Started off with more blob watching. A few almost pulled it together or persisted long enough.. Most the weather watchers more than had their fill with the 2020 Hurricane Season. The Winter Garden started producing as we settled into watching tropical storms elsewhere like Yasa and Zazu. The conjunction of Saturn and Jupiter challenged amature photographers (including me). We end the year not just looking back, ready to move on but witnessing another one of natures anomolies as a 924.6mb extratropical low has broke the all time low pressure in that region near Alaska.
2020 was a tough year for many. If you made it through you did better than some. RIP to all the weather blog members that passed, my neighbors that didn't make it and to the WeatherUnderground Cat 6 blog. May we all find some peace and meet up again be it in the limbo WU disqus thread, Eye of the Storm at YCC or elsewhere. To a better year! May it be a better one for us all.
Yasa Impacts Fiji Harshly for the Holidays
Yasa was a Category 5 cyclone with 177mph winds when it hit Fiji. At least two people died. Many homes and crops were lost. The number of unusually severe storm to hit to this area of the world has been on a notable rise in recent years. Fiji Prime Minister Frank Bainimarama, and Genevieve Jiva, the secretary for the environmental NGO 350 in Fiji, are both calling for climate justice and action. https://www.cnn.com/2020/12/17/weather/cyclone-yasa-damage-intl-hnk/index.html
Cold Front Coming to the East
90L in the Northeast Atlantic
Left is a Modis pass of 90L earlier today as it pulled together a little. National hurricane Center gives 90L a 40% chance to become a subtropical storm before conditions deteriorate after a few days. It is expected to wander north of the Canary Islands and affect Madeira Island with strong winds and heavy rains Monday and Tuesday.
Indonesia Volcano Unrest Increases
Lewotolo Volcano erupted this morning in southern Indonesia (Indonesia MAGMA). According to Relief Web the eruption sent ash over 50,000ft into the atmosphere. 12,500 people live within the extreme 10km danger zone. Near 500,000 live close enough to be impacted.
Three other volcanoes are at the highest danger threat level: Mount Sinabung in North Sumatra, Mount Merapi on the border of Yogyakarta and Central Java (just elevated today) and Mount Karangetang in North Sulawesi.
Current Eta Graphics
Eta Slide Show
Eta storm: a landslide buries a hundred people in Guatemala
Official video of Noticias Telemundo. The landslide, caused by the intense rains in Eta, destroyed at least 25 houses with dozens of people inside in a village in Alta Verapaz. The catastrophic rains have submerged entire communities under water in Nicaragua, Honduras, Guatemala and El Salvador.
Nicaragua and Honduras Prepare for Eta
Real-time Eta graphics.
NOAA's Zeta Hurricane Imagery Shows Extensive Damage
Images gathered by airplane after ZETA show severe damage to even the land itself. NOAA's images can be foundat this link .
Goni Hit Harder Than Any Storm in Recorded History
With a pressure of 884mb & winds of 195mph Goni (aka Rolly) slammed the Philippines. Is that a bridge flapping in the wind @4:00?
Zeta intensified and rushed in for a landfall as a 112mph Catagory 2 hurricane with a forward speed of 24mph near Cocodrie, in Terrebonne Parish, LA. It appears to have been the highest hurricane winds that have traversed New Orleans on record. Took out over 2 million electric customers as it crossed through many southeast states. It breached the burrito levee in Grand Isle. Some rescue parties were sent out after. At least six people have died. Four were hit by trees, one was electrocuted and the the other drown.
Western North Carolina and Virginia took wind and flooding damage from quick passing Zeta. The Richmond Times has an article full of pictures. There is a lot of downed trees on cars and homes as well as flooding. Below is a picture from that article of a crushed bus in Newton, NC.
Tropics Aren't Done Yet
NHC Key Messages
Grand Isle Surge Forecast
GHeroCAM1 New Orleans, LA
millertmCAM4 Belle Chasse, LA
K4QALCAM6 Slidell, LA
95L Current Images
Tropics Photo Gallery of Recent Events
Bermuda was overall spared from the wrath of Epsilon who was at one point a category 3 hurricane.
Current Tropics and Weather News..
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