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Barely pulled together a last look and final forecast for the 2019 Hurricane Season after chasing the heat wave and great tunes around Florida. Started with the Frontier Weather, Inc ENSO Weather Analog Calculator. With updated averages and a slightly warmer looking forecast the analog years came out as pictured below.  Really only considered the top five and 1927. The flooding in the midwest and Canada has been most comparable to this year. 1993 is in there, another flooded year for that region. Did toss the number 1 for being a bit of an outlier, year of Camile. 1969 20-18-12-5 1993 10-8-4-4 1991 12-8-4-2 1958 12-12-7-3 1994 14-9-3-0 1927 10-8-4-1 Years with higher rains and tornadoes in the Midwest tend to have less storms. The Atlantic is over due for less storms. The cyclone switch seems off now with the storms on land mode in place. Even though shear is falling Vertical Instability seems low in most areas. The Atlantic has already seen it's first Tropical Storm of the year. Looking through the other analog years, the first storm could be in May or in August. So with less confidence than some years, went with 11-9-4-3. Overall there was less method and scrutiny applied than in some years. The Midwest flooding weighted heavy this year. Looking at the Vertical Instability and Sea Surface Temperatures the areas of greatest risk looked to be the East Coast, followed by the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Florida Tax Free Hurricane Shopping Now is the time to storm prep. Tax holiday for hurricane supplies runs from May 31st through June 6th.
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NASA's GMAO monthly May forecast is out. El Nino looks to be maturing with the warm pool drifting back to the west as the East Pacific begins to cool. Overall sort of a warm neutral or weak El nino expected.  Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies look warm. Hot in the Arctic with the reprieve being in the Antarctic. Hints at another bad cyclone year for Japan and slower year for the Philippines. Carolinas and East Coast may get above average hurricanes this summer and fall.  Took a quick glance at global precipitation. East Pacific could have another active year. May see the United States dry out a little. The 2M temp maps showed a scary hot Arctic. All to be covered next blog. Grew all these purple potatoes in a 14" pot from a potato that was sprouting. The mix was pony/cow compost with a shovel of fire pit ash. That is the South Garden reclaimed in the background. Gift seedlings and seeds have moved in. The last three days of rain have been perfect for replanting this garden. 
Heavy rain and spring melt is coming together in the Mississippi and Illinois River. Sections of both rivers are flooding. The Mississippi record at Rock Island broken. More may fall as the daily severe storms rain on.
These river gauge graphic are in real time. Refresh page for latest. To see river gauges across the United Statescheck here.
There is a mid-level closed low east of the Bahamas. It's expected to bring rain to Florida by Thursday.
Embedding a few real time views.
Previous blog compared this year's ENSO to the top eight ENSO events. Overall it stacks up a little weak, sort of lacking a peak, yet doesn't seem to be in the process of flipping state like some past years have occurring already. Reality is it has exhausted a lot of it's heat supply yet a good bit remains, looks mature and another west wind burst should be coming along from the storms in the Indian Ocean.
It's probably going to continue to overall cool. Most El Ninos weaken to at least Neutral by summer. Using Frontier Weather Inc's weather analog finder showed a decline to neutral was likely with ENSO going in about any direction by late year. Ran this twice this year too. One with the three month forecast nino 3.4 average at 0.3 and then again at 0.5 just because it wouldn't surprise if the decline was slow & it was a little higher than forecast.
Higher ranked, are more weighted. Picking from these lists, going with everything in the top 5 or on both lists. Also adding two big Midwest and Canada spring flood years 2017 & 1928. Comparing with hurricane numbers per season: 2005 31-28-15-7 1969 20-18-12-5 1995 21-19-11-5* 1977 16-6-5-1* 2004 16-15-9-6 2003 21-16-7-3 1980 15-11-9-2 1991 12-8-4-2 2017 18-17-10-6* 1928 8-7-4-1 *Year very close to a solar minimium Next blog will probably be looking over some seasonal forecasts.
The flooding up in Canada has been worse than 2017 in many ways. In some cases lessons were learned and implemented helping but overall it's a long event. Yesterday's high west wind pushed a lot of water east unnerving many. Over 5000 homes are flooded so far. Here is one story of the so, so many.
How To Flood Proof Your Home III - on a sad note
Andrew Hendry Published on Apr 28, 2019 The third in my series of videos about fighting the #montreal #laval #ottawa #Flooding2019. This video is less positive as I am struggling with the fact that the houses of two of our well-prepared and hard-working neighbors have now flooded. Is it that our own preparations are that much better - or simply that our house is higher? Andrew Hendry has since released another video. They have gone to a method where they wrap the bottom of the house in plastic and put sandbags against that with bilge pumps inside. He's still fighting the flood and goes kayaking in it. Been looking at a lot of things ENSO. It's spring barrier time. Storm season is nigh. First off looked at ESRL it was comparing this year to the top six and eight El Ninos (some categories don't go back as many years). The years of comparison were 2016, 2011, 1998, 1992, 1983, 1966 and 1958. This basically covers many different ways and aspects of how ENSO is measured. ONI which is a three month running average of Nino 3.4 is a more official or standard judge.  By ONI this has been a weak El Nino event. It has hovered over the 0.5 heat anomaly long enough to qualify but lacked a peak compared to the others. By the different measurements MEI V2 was also low end. Nino 4 is mid all the way. Nino 3,4 is low end. Nino 3 got a late start. Nino 1,2 was low side all the way. BEST was weak. SOI was somewhat high & weak for an El Nino. Tropical Pacific Heat Content is still high compared to all the other years where El Nino cooled to Neutral or less. Spring barrier drags on.  Zonal winds have been sort of lacking compared to the others. ESPI, the Pacific precipitation has coupled well with El Nino.  Overall it's been kind of a weak El Nino. Seems a little soon since the last but the heat content built up and the winds have obliged. The atmosphere seems well seeded. The high number of global flooding issues lately and strong storms concur. All the other El Nino years compared here ended or nearly ended with Spring. Seeing how this El Nino is weak compared to these, there is better analog years. That's for next blog. This morning the wind may have blown a crane off the Google building in Seattle, WA. Four died. An eye witness in this from TODAY says, "It became really really strong wind, right around that time is when we heard the crash." As a Miller type storm started pulling together yesterday it dropped a tornado that flipped a loose mobile home and made for a spectacular trampoline taken to the sky video. Marbleton Wyoming tornado video April 26 2019nico bellic Published on Apr 26, 2019 Marbleton Wyoming tornado video April 26 2019. Credits to tobi.sherbrook A second tornado was captured in Hyde County, NC. This was part of the system that on Wednesday morning spun up several tornadoes in Texas and Louisiana, one of which killed a mother and son. Looks to have scoured some ground and had a healthy debris ball of dust and dirt. Tornado in Hyde County, NC today ,APRIL 26 2019nico bellic Published on Apr 26, 2019 Tornado in Hyde County, NC today ,APRIL 26 2019.CREDITS TO Chris Moore. Though an isolated tornado can't be ruled out for the weekend, overall we should get a reprieve from the out breaks till Monday morning. Tuesday night into Wednesday morning isn't looking so good.
All sorts of flooding going on. First a look at the southeast which is still dealing with an abundance of rain from the front last week. Here is current road closures in North Carolina. Other areas that are experiencing flooding in the US are Vermont and Central Arkansas. In North Dakota four people with canoes were told to get off the flooded river after a kayaker had to be rescued during last week's flood. Canada is battling spring flooding. Residents of Montreal spent their Easter preparing for more flood. They are asking all volunteers to come out and help. One woman has already died in the western part of Quebec. Wednesday is the expected peak in Laval. Those is Gatineau may be having horrid flashbacks of what was endured during the 2017 flooding. Not even fully recovered as a community they face the flood again. The latest round of storms were destructive and deadly. Mississippi lost three people and had damage reported in at least 24 of it's 82 counties. Two were driving accidents, the third was cutting down a tree that had fallen on a house. In Alabama one died when a tree fell on her mobile home. Another tree on a house killed an eight year old girl in Florida, just south of Tallahassee. A twelve year old boy was also injured. Another injury was reported from an apartment complex in Atlanta that had a tree fall on it. Just outside Atlanta three firefighters were injured when their fire truck was flipped by the strong winds. Tennessee also took some damage. Knoxville was hit hard. 70 people were put out of their apartments, the building lost it's roof. A fire station also had it's roof partially removed by the wind.
Storm Chasing With Aaron Jayjack Tornado Warnings Blast Mississippi Causing Flash Flooding in HattiesburgAaron Jayjack Published on Apr 19, 2019 Extreme Storm Chaser Aaron Jayjack documents multiple tornado warnings as severe weather rakes across Mississippi on 4-18-2019. Flash flooding impacted cities such as Hattiesburg after tornado warnings blasted through the area. The Nebraska Farmers' Stories Keep Coming From the Flood Loup City Farmer Powerless as Flood Washes Away CattleNebraska Farm Bureau
Published on Apr 5, 2019 Mike Kaminski stood by, powerless to stop a massive flood from washing away all of his cow/calf pairs that had been in one of his pens. It was an area of his land that had never seen standing water until March 13, 2019. Another wind incident vs bounce house. This looks like an intense dust devil. CGTN
Published on Mar 31, 2019 Eighteen children were injured after a tornado blew away a trampoline at a scenic spot in Yucheng County in China's central Henan Province at around 3:00 p.m. local time on Sunday. The injured were taken to hospital, according to local authorities. Emergency officials are on the scene. |
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