Been looking at a lot of things ENSO. It's spring barrier time. Storm season is nigh.
First off looked at ESRL it was comparing this year to the top six and eight El Ninos (some categories don't go back as many years). The years of comparison were 2016, 2011, 1998, 1992, 1983, 1966 and 1958. This basically covers many different ways and aspects of how ENSO is measured.
ONI which is a three month running average of Nino 3.4 is a more official or standard judge.
By ONI this has been a weak El Nino event. It has hovered over the 0.5 heat anomaly long enough to qualify but lacked a peak compared to the others.
By the different measurements MEI V2 was also low end. Nino 4 is mid all the way. Nino 3,4 is low end. Nino 3 got a late start. Nino 1,2 was low side all the way. BEST was weak. SOI was somewhat high & weak for an El Nino. Tropical Pacific Heat Content is still high compared to all the other years where El Nino cooled to Neutral or less. Spring barrier drags on.
Zonal winds have been sort of lacking compared to the others. ESPI, the Pacific precipitation has coupled well with El Nino.
Overall it's been kind of a weak El Nino. Seems a little soon since the last but the heat content built up and the winds have obliged. The atmosphere seems well seeded. The high number of global flooding issues lately and strong storms concur. All the other El Nino years compared here ended or nearly ended with Spring. Seeing how this El Nino is weak compared to these, there is better analog years. That's for next blog.
This morning the wind may have blown a crane off the Google building in Seattle, WA. Four died. An eye witness in this from TODAY says, "It became really really strong wind, right around that time is when we heard the crash."