NASA's GEOS-5 model has been forecasting the NW Caribbean storm since 240hrs out. At first had it going toward Florida with subsequent runs bringing a quick shift toward the west. The last several days has had it running over the tip of the Yucatan, it's ended it in Mexico mostly, Texas occasionally. Seeing the ECMWF jumping on board with it this morning. Here's GEOS-5 00Z run.
Neither the ECMWF or GEOS-5 is liking the possible storm forming in the Mid-Atlantic this morning. Though it was showing enough promise to be declared 92L in the night. It is located 5N 33.3W, is estimated to have 20kt winds and a pressure of 1009mb.
SAB Tropical Review Update
Good news for now...
NESDIS and NWS leadership are currently engaged in ongoing discussions regarding SAB's Tropical Program. I believe no changes are likely through the end of the calendar year.
SAB Tropical Team Lead