Previous blog compared this year's ENSO to the top eight ENSO events. Overall it stacks up a little weak, sort of lacking a peak, yet doesn't seem to be in the process of flipping state like some past years have occurring already. Reality is it has exhausted a lot of it's heat supply yet a good bit remains, looks mature and another west wind burst should be coming along from the storms in the Indian Ocean.
It's probably going to continue to overall cool. Most El Ninos weaken to at least Neutral by summer. Using Frontier Weather Inc's weather analog finder showed a decline to neutral was likely with ENSO going in about any direction by late year. Ran this twice this year too. One with the three month forecast nino 3.4 average at 0.3 and then again at 0.5 just because it wouldn't surprise if the decline was slow & it was a little higher than forecast.
Higher ranked, are more weighted. Picking from these lists, going with everything in the top 5 or on both lists. Also adding two big Midwest and Canada spring flood years 2017 & 1928.
Comparing with hurricane numbers per season:
*Year very close to a solar minimium
Next blog will probably be looking over some seasonal forecasts.
The flooding up in Canada has been worse than 2017 in many ways. In some cases lessons were learned and implemented helping but overall it's a long event. Yesterday's high west wind pushed a lot of water east unnerving many. Over 5000 homes are flooded so far. Here is one story of the so, so many.
How To Flood Proof Your Home III - on a sad note
Published on Apr 28, 2019
The third in my series of videos about fighting the #montreal #laval #ottawa #Flooding2019. This video is less positive as I am struggling with the fact that the houses of two of our well-prepared and hard-working neighbors have now flooded. Is it that our own preparations are that much better - or simply that our house is higher?
Andrew Hendry has since released another video. They have gone to a method where they wrap the bottom of the house in plastic and put sandbags against that with bilge pumps inside. He's still fighting the flood and goes kayaking in it.