Hurricane Season is Here
This seems like a tougher year to forecast the number of storms ahead. Don't really see ENSO being a limiting factor. We are going into this with the switch not thrown. Globally storms have been scarce and weaker recently or more on land. The other basins have had fewer than their share overall so far too which tends to lend to a busier Atlantic Season or WPAC. There has also been alot of mid-'70s references in the records broken the last few months. Of my analog years 4 have a high number of depressions with about half as many named storms. Two had high number of storms and high number of named storms (both were more recent analog years). The other two years had low storms and named storms. Looking at that, the trend so far and with lesser confidence I'll go 19 (depressions) -16 (named storms) -10 (hurricanes) -4 (major storms). Considering SSTs and such, I'm trending toward it being a year more likely to have land-falling storms. Main Development Region (well out in the Atlantic) may never really heat up but closer to land maybe plenty warm for homegrown storms. This SST forecast also lends to maybe relatively more for the Atlantic than WPAC.
Volcan de Fuego Erupts
The most active volcano in Central America, Volcan de Fuego has erupted for the second time this year. This one was a bit larger and has killed atleast seven people. Twenty were injured, many more are missing and assumed buried in ash or lava. El Rodeo Village had lava come into it and is one of the harder affected areas. 3,100 people have had to evacuate from nearby communities. Shelters are open. Over all this is affecting around 1.7million people. Ash is falling on Guatemala City, Sacatepequez, Chimaltenango, Escuintla and the tourist town of Antigua. More here.
Webcam Antigua Guatemala, Refresh page for most recent image. Link to live cam
A Song to the Lava
An eighteen-year-old girl singing her song in front of lava Published on Jun 3, 2018Eighteen-year-old Hawaiian resident Kumsa Maphalala sings the song "Burn It Down" in a few meters from vocalno Kilauea lava.
Kumsa composed this song in May, when Kilauea's fissures eruption has been started